CRIOS Methodology v3.2

Four-tier verification taxonomy · Hourly AEF · Beneficial-ownership-share crediting

The No-Self-Reporting Principle

Conventional carbon credit verification relies on operator-submitted data. Projects file monitoring reports; validation/verification bodies audit what operators claim; registries issue credits based on the audited operator submissions. The operator sits in the middle of the chain of custody for their own credits.

Karbera operates differently. Every Karbera-verified credit is grounded in data already being recorded by parties other than the operator — government-published grid metering (ONS Brazil), regulatory plant registries (ANEEL SIGA), utility-issued documents, and hardware-attested device readings. Karbera reads what's already being recorded; the operator doesn't have to assemble or submit anything. The verification runs on the data, not on the operator.

This is the proof, not the pitch. It is what makes the rest of the engine possible.

This principle is foundational to both Karbera (the verification methodology) and CRIOS (the issuance platform that accepts only methodologies operating under it).

v3.2 · current

Earlier methodology versions remain in effect for operators where v3.2 schema extensions don't apply (e.g., v3.1 for MMGD operators without per-installation ownership data). Each operator surfaces its own active version.

Overview

Karbera computes avoided emissions at hourly resolution using verified ONS dispatch. Verification depth varies by asset class: utility-scale plants are individually grid-verified; MMGD operators are reconciled against EPE PDGD aggregates where possible, modeled where not. Every per-row figure carries its verification tier so reviewers can audit the mechanism, not just the number.

Four-tier verification taxonomy

Tier 1A
Utility-scale · grid-verified per-plant

Every plant's hourly generation is independently verified at the generation-side meter via ONS dispatch (geracao_usina_2_ho / geracao_termica_despacho_2_ho) — the canonical metered values used by ANEEL/CCEE for settlement. Avoided emissions are credited net of operator beneficial-ownership share (v3.2). Operators served: Engie Brasil Energia, CEMIG GT.

methodology · CRIOS-v3.2-grid-verified
Tier 1B
MMGD · aggregate-verified, methodology-allocated

Operator's aggregate portfolio matches EPE PDGD cell totals within ±15% tolerance. Per-installation figures are methodology allocations of the verified aggregate — not independently metered per-plant. The honest framing: best-available verification for Class A MMGD operators.

methodology · CRIOS-v3.2-aggregate-verified
Tier 0
MMGD · modeled-only

Capacity known from Sistema GD registry; production modeled from regional capacity factors and hourly profiles. No reconciliation anchor. Default when EPE PDGD fixtures are absent or cell reconciliation falls outside tolerance. Stays on v3.1 until per-installation ownership data is available.

methodology · CRIOS-v3.1-modeled
Tier 2 / 3 / 4
Third-party data with consent · hardware-attested

Tier 2 — bill-OCR (utility-issued documents are third-party to the operator). Tier 3 — inverter API direct-read (manufacturer-side telemetry). Tier 4 — hardware-attested signed device readings. All tiers operate under the No-Self-Reporting Principle: the operator authorises access; the data originates outside the operator. Ingestion is Phase 4 work.

methodology · reserved

Methodology integrity rule

Any displayed numeric figure that an external party could independently verify uses the recognizable form (operator's published nameplate, not internal methodological transformations). Derived values are shown alongside, not in place of, canonical values. This governs capacity (DC nameplate primary, AC equivalent alongside), coverage % (basis explicit), emission factors (sources cited), and grid AEF (Karbera-computed value cross-checked against MCTI's official monthly factors).

Production-of-record principle

Every per-row numeric figure is traceable to its verification mechanism, and the mechanism is visible to the user. The four-tier taxonomy above is the buyer-facing form of this principle.

Data sources

ANEEL SIGA

Plant registry — every generation asset connected to the Brazilian grid, with capacity, technology, owner, location.

Updated daily
Source
ONS Geração por Usina em Base Horária

Verified hourly generation by plant, published by the Brazilian grid operator.

Updated daily
Source
ONS Geração de Térmicas por Despacho

Verified thermal dispatch by plant and fuel type, used to compute hourly grid AEF.

Updated daily
Source

Emission factors

Fuel / sourcetCO₂/MWhCitation
Natural gas combined cycle0.40IPCC AR6, 50%-efficient CCGT lifecycle
Natural gas simple cycle0.55IPCC AR6
Coal0.95IPCC AR6, average for Brazilian fleet
Oil / Diesel0.78IPCC AR6
Biomass0.00IPCC standard convention; see limitations
Nuclear0.00IPCC standard convention
Renewable (hydro/wind/solar/ocean)0.00IPCC standard convention

Calculation walkthrough

Worked example for one hour of one plant.

Example: On 2025-06-15 at 19:00 BRT:
· Total grid load: 73.2 GW (from ONS)
· Thermal plants generated: 9.1 GW (from ONS thermal dispatch)
Fuel mix: 6.2 GW gas CCGT, 1.8 GW gas SCGT, 0.7 GW coal, 0.4 GW oil
Total fossil emissions:
(6.2 × 0.40) + (1.8 × 0.55) + (0.7 × 0.95) + (0.4 × 0.78) = 4,461 tCO₂
AEF for hour: 4,461 / 73,200 = 0.061 tCO₂/MWh
Engie Itá generated 980 MWh that hour.
Avoided emissions for Itá that hour: 980 × 0.061 = 59.8 tCO₂

Limitations (honest disclosure)

  • AEF only today. Karbera currently computes the Average Emission Factor (AEF) of the hourly grid mix. MEF (Marginal Emission Factor) is on the methodology roadmap — in active development, not shipped.
  • Biomass treatment. Biomass is treated as zero-emission per IPCC convention. This assumes biomass is part of the short-term carbon cycle, which is debated in academic literature. Future versions may apply biomass-specific factors.
  • Coverage. Currently restricted to plants individually tracked in ONS dispatch data. Plants in MMGD (Micro/Minigeração Distribuída) classifications are aggregated and not individually verifiable from public data alone. Operators may provide additional data to extend coverage.
  • Losses. Grid emission factors do not yet account for transmission losses or auxiliary consumption at thermal plants. Both refinements are on the roadmap.

Scientific references

Karbera methodology is calibrated to first-principles scientific authorities and Brazilian regulatory data — not to commercial registry standards.

Version history

  • v3.2
    current — Adds beneficial-ownership-share crediting (JV-aware netting) on top of v3.1's four-tier taxonomy. Active for utility-scale operators (Engie, CEMIG GT) where ownership data is available.
  • v3.1
    in service for MMGD — Four-tier verification taxonomy. MMGD via Class A operators (aggregate-verified) and Class B/C disclosure framing. Remains current for MMGD operators pending per-installation ownership data.
  • v3.0
    deprecated — Hourly AEF for utility-scale only.
  • v2.0
    deprecated — Annual average emission factor. No longer issued.
  • v1.0
    deprecated — Pilot-only static factor.