Eligibility and value

What is a verified tonne worth across markets?

A map of the markets that price avoided emissions today, the pathways forming for Brazilian compliance and Article 6, the reference benchmarks set by compliance systems where renewable-displacement credits are not eligible, and the demand direction emerging from hourly carbon-matched procurement.

Market Value Pathway Map

What is a verified tonne worth across markets?

An eligibility-and-value map for the category — not a price chart, not a return projection, and never tied to a specific asset. Each band carries a source and as-of date.

Addressable today · Voluntary markets

Addressable

Where independently verified avoided-emission claims from renewable generation transact today, primarily bilateral/OTC. Realized prices depend on vintage, registry, project type, and counterparty.

Verra VCS RE$4.5–$8 · 2026-Q1
Gold Standard RE$5–$12 · 2026-Q1
Brazilian voluntary I-REC$4.5–$7 · 2026-Q1

Pathways · Brazilian compliance & Article 6

Pathway

Brazil's compliance market (SBCE, Lei 15.042/2024) contemplates accredited crediting methodologies (CRVE). Karbera's methodology is built for this bar — fully published, no self-reporting, hourly ONS-verified data — and accreditation under the SBCE managing body is a stated Karbera objective as the system's rules are finalized. Brazil is also accelerating Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM / Article 6) adoption; internationally transferred mitigation outcomes require exactly the provenance and no-double-counting guarantees Karbera's audit architecture provides.

SBCE (Lei 15.042/2024) · phasing 2025–2031
Article 6 / PACM · price TBD

Reference only · Compliance markets (context)

Not eligible

What the world's compliance markets pay for a tonne. These systems settle in their own allowances or narrow domestic offset protocols; renewable-displacement credits are not eligible. Shown as reference anchors for what verified carbon is worth where verification is mandatory — not as an available market.

EU ETS allowance$82.89 · 2026-06-10
California CCA$28.81 · 2026-05-01
RGGI$35 · 2026-06-03

Forward demand · Hourly carbon-matched procurement

Emerging

Hyperscalers are moving from annual renewable matching to 24/7 hourly carbon-free energy commitments, with granular-certificate standards (EnergyTag) formalizing per-hour attributes. The procurement frontier is emissions-matched: buying the hours that displace the most carbon. Karbera measures precisely that quantity — hourly, per-plant, provenance-attached — and the marginal emission factor (MEF) on our methodology roadmap is the exact signal emissions-first procurement ranks on. No established price benchmark exists yet for granular attributes; this lane shows demand direction, not price.

No established benchmarkDemand direction
$0$25$50$75$90USD / verified tCO₂

Indicative reference values, not quotes and not investment advice. Realized prices depend on vintage, registry, project type, additionality assessment, and counterparty; markets shown are not interchangeable, and eligibility differs by system. Karbera displays market-level information only and does not estimate the value of any specific asset or portfolio. CRIOS tokens are not offered for sale; no tokens have been minted and no smart contracts have been deployed. For what verified measurement could mean for your portfolio, contact us.

Citations

  • SBCE — Lei 15.042/2024: Casa Civil
  • Article 6 / PACM: UNFCCC Article 6.4 Mechanism
  • Granular certificates: EnergyTag
  • 24/7 carbon-free energy: Google 24/7 CFE · Microsoft 100/100/0
  • Voluntary market reference prices are sourced from the curated registry that powers the Intelligence page (Ecosystem Marketplace, Carbon Pulse, Brazilian I-REC OTC disclosures). Compliance reference values are sourced from RGGI auction results, ICE EUA settlement (via Trading Economics with DEHST canonical reconciliation), and CARB joint auction reports.